MONTE VISTA — At the opening day of the Southern Rocky Mountain Agriculture Conference and Trade Show in Monte Vista, CoBank Lead Economist Tanner Ehmke's presentation shed light on the geopolitics of agricultural markets, a topic of significant interest and relevance to the audience. 

"So many factors are in play; you all have been watching the news just over the last few days; the news is moving in real-time, and the market is responding with higher volatility because of the trade situation as it is right now with the United States and the Trump administration and with our major trading partners. It appears as though tariffs are on hold between Canada and Mexico. We are moving forward with ten percent tariffs with China; they are going to respond with 15 percent tariffs on the United States, and more tariffs forthcoming with Europe. 

"So whatever I say will probably be irrelevant in the next 20 minutes, we will go ahead and give it the good college try. If you guys have any questions, I will probably say, I don't know," said Ehmke,"  

"Marco issues that we are watching, there are a lot of things going on around the world that affect the economy. Number one, global deficits. We know the story all too well in the United States. How many decades have we been talking about runaway spending? I heard about it first when I was in the sixth grade. We talk about how the United States is a house of cards with unsustainable debt levels, and here we are and the house just got bigger. 

"The global demographic situation is one of an aging population and shrinking family size. This has significant economic implications. It's challenging to sell products in a shrinking economy with a declining population. With fewer workers and consumers, this trend is exerting a cooling effect on the U.S. Economy." 

In a brief synopsis of military conflicts, Ehmke said China will unlikely invade Taiwan.